High-resolution land use/cover forecasts for Switzerland in the 21st century.

We present forecasts of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for Switzerland for three time-steps in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, and at 100-m spatial and 14-class thematic resolution. We modelled the spatial suitability for each LULC class with a neural network (NN) using > 200 predictors and accounting for climate and policy changes. We improved model performance by using a data augmentation algorithm that synthetically increased the number of cells of underrepresented classes, resulting in an overall quantity disagreement of 0.053 and allocation disagreement of 0.15, which indicate good prediction accuracy. These class-specific spatial suitability maps outputted by the NN were then merged in a single LULC map per time-step using the CLUE-S algorithm, accounting for LULC demand for the future and a set of LULC transition rules. As the first LULC forecast for Switzerland at a thematic resolution comparable to available LULC maps for the past, this product lends itself to applications in land-use planning, resource management, ecological and hydraulic modelling, habitat restoration and conservation.

SWECO25: a cross-thematic raster database for ecological research in Switzerland.

Standard and easily accessible cross-thematic spatial databases are key resources in ecological research. In Switzerland, as in many other countries, available data are scattered across computer servers of research institutions and are rarely provided in standard formats (e.g., different extents or projections systems, inconsistent naming conventions). Consequently, their joint use can require heavy data management and geomatic operations. Here, we introduce SWECO25, a Swiss-wide raster database at 25-meter resolution gathering 5,265 layers. The 10 environmental categories included in SWECO25 are: geologic, topographic, bioclimatic, hydrologic, edaphic, land use and cover, population, transportation, vegetation, and remote sensing. SWECO25 layers were standardized to a common grid sharing the same resolution, extent, and geographic coordinate system. SWECO25 includes the standardized source data and newly calculated layers, such as those obtained by computing focal or distance statistics. SWECO25 layers were validated by a data integrity check, and we verified that the standardization procedure had a negligible effect on the output values. SWECO25 is available on Zenodo and is intended to be updated and extended regularly.

Linking plant and vertebrate species to Nature's Contributions to People in the Swiss Alps.

Since the late 1990s, Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs; i.e. ecosystem services) were used as a putative leverage for fostering nature preservation. NCPs have largely been defined and mapped at the landscape level using land use and cover classifications. However, NCP mapping attempts based directly on individual species are still uncommon. Given that species shape ecosystems and ultimately deliver NCPs, mapping NCPs based on species distribution data should deliver highly meaningful results. This requires first establishing a census of the species-to-NCP relationships. However, datasets quantifying these relationships across several species and NCPs are rare. Here, we fill this gap by compiling literature and expert knowledge to establish the relationships of 1816 tracheophyte and 250 vertebrate species with 17 NCPs in the Swiss Alps. We illustrated the 31,098 identified species-NCP relationships for the two lineages and discuss why such a table is a key initial step in building spatial predictions of NCPs directly from species data, e.g. to ultimately complement spatial conservation planning.

Current challenges and implications for dengue, chikungunya and Zika seroprevalence studies worldwide: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Arboviral infections are a public health concern and an escalating problem worldwide. Estimating the burden of these diseases represents a major challenge that is complicated by the large number of unapparent infections, especially those of dengue fever. Serological surveys are thus required to identify the distribution of these diseases and measure their impact. Therefore, we undertook a scoping review of the literature to describe and summarize epidemiological practices, findings and insights related to seroprevalence studies of dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus, which have rapidly expanded across the globe in recent years. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relevant studies were retrieved through a literature search of MEDLINE, WHOLIS, Lilacs, SciELO and Scopus (2000 to 2018). In total, 1389 publications were identified. Studies addressing the seroprevalence of dengue, chikungunya and/or Zika written in English or French and meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were included. In total, 147 studies were included, from which 185 data points were retrieved, as some studies used several different samples. Most of the studies were exclusively conducted on dengue (66.5%), but 16% were exclusively conducted on chikungunya, and 7 were exclusively conducted on Zika; the remainder were conducted on multiple arboviruses. A wide range of designs were applied, but most studies were conducted in the general population (39%) and in households (41%). Although several assays were used, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were the predominant test used (77%). The temporal distribution of chikungunya studies followed the virus during its rapid expansion since 2004. The results revealed heterogeneity of arboviruses seroprevalence between continents and within a given country for dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, ranging from 0 to 100%, 76% and 73% respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Serological surveys provide the most direct measurement for defining the immunity landscape for infectious diseases, but the methodology remains difficult to implement. Overall, dengue, chikungunya and Zika serosurveys followed the expansion of these arboviruses, but there remain gaps in their geographic distribution. This review addresses the challenges for researchers regarding study design biases. Moreover, the development of reliable, rapid and affordable diagnosis tools represents a significant issue concerning the ability of seroprevalence surveys to differentiate infections when multiple viruses co-circulate.

Zika virus outbreak in Suriname, a report based on laboratory surveillance data.

INTRODUCTION: Since the identification of ZIKV in Brazil in May 2015, the virus has spread extensively throughout the Americas. Cases of ZIKV infection have been reported in Suriname since October 2, 2015. METHODS: A laboratory-based surveillance system was quickly implemented according to previous experience with the emergence of chikungunya. General practitioners and public health centers located in different districts of Suriname were asked to send blood samples from suspicious cases to Academic Hospital for molecular diagnosis of Zika virus infection. We investigated Zika-related laboratory data collected during surveillance and response activities to provide the first outbreak report in Suriname in terms of time, location and person. RESULTS: A total of 791 molecularly confirmed cases were reported during a 48-week interval from October 2015 to August 2016. The majority of ZIKV-positive cases involved women between 20 and 39 years of age, reflecting concern about Zika infection during pregnancy. The outbreak peaked in mid-January and gradually spread from the district of Paramaribo to western coastal areas. DISCUSSION: This report provides a simple and comprehensive description of the outbreak in Suriname and demonstrates the utility of laboratory data to highlight the spatiotemporal dynamics of the outbreak in that country.

The proportion of asymptomatic infections and spectrum of disease among pregnant women infected by Zika virus: systematic monitoring in French Guiana, 2016.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has been associated with complications during pregnancy. Although the presence of symptoms might be a risk factor for complication, the proportion of ZIKV-infected pregnant women with symptoms remains unknown. Following the emergence of ZIKV in French Guiana, all pregnancies in the territory were monitored by RT-PCR and/or detection of ZIKV antibodies. Follow-up data collected during pregnancy monitoring interviews were analysed from 1 February to 1 June 2016. We enrolled 3,050 pregnant women aged 14-48 years and 573 (19%) had laboratory-confirmed ZIKV infection. Rash, arthralgia, myalgia and conjunctival hyperaemia were more frequently observed in ZIKV-positive women; 23% of them (95% confidence interval (CI): 20-27) had at least one symptom compatible with ZIKV infection. Women 30 years and older were significantly more likely to have symptoms than younger women (28% vs 20%). The proportion of symptomatic infections varied from 17% in the remote interior to 35% in the urbanised population near the coast (adjusted risk ratio: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4-1.9.). These estimates put findings on cohorts of symptomatic ZIKV-positive pregnant women into the wider context of an epidemic with mainly asymptomatic infections. The proportion of symptomatic ZIKV infections appears to vary substantially between populations.

Anopheles fauna of coastal Cayenne, French Guiana: modelling and mapping of species presence using remotely sensed land cover data.

Little is known about the Anopheles species of the coastal areas of French Guiana, or their spatiotemporal distribution or environmental determinants. The present study aimed to (1) document the distribution of Anopheles fauna in the coastal area around Cayenne, and (2) investigate the use of remotely sensed land cover data as proxies of Anopheles presence. To characterise the Anopheles fauna, we combined the findings of two entomological surveys that were conducted during the period 2007-2009 and in 2014 at 37 sites. Satellite imagery data were processed to extract land cover variables potentially related to Anopheles ecology. Based on these data, a methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-seasonal variations in the presence of Anopheles in the Cayenne region. Two Anopheles species, known as main malaria vectors in South America, were identified, including the more dominant An. aquasalis near town and rural sites, and An. darlingi only found in inland sites. Furthermore, a cross-validated model of An. aquasalis presence that integrated marsh and forest surface area was extrapolated to generate predictive maps. The present study supports the use of satellite imagery by health authorities for the surveillance of malaria vectors and planning of control strategies.

Anopheles fauna of coastal Cayenne, French Guiana: modelling and mapping of species presence using remotely sensed land cover data

Little is known about the Anopheles species of the coastal areas of French Guiana, or their spatiotemporal distribution or environmental determinants. The present study aimed to (1) document the distribution of Anopheles fauna in the coastal area around Cayenne, and (2) investigate the use of remotely sensed land cover data as proxies of Anopheles presence. To characterise the Anopheles fauna, we combined the findings of two entomological surveys that were conducted during the period 2007-2009 and in 2014 at 37 sites. Satellite imagery data were processed to extract land cover variables potentially related to Anopheles ecology. Based on these data, a methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-seasonal variations in the presence of Anopheles in the Cayenne region. Two Anopheles species, known as main malaria vectors in South America, were identified, including the more dominant An. aquasalis near town and rural sites, and An. darlingi only found in inland sites. Furthermore, a cross-validated model of An. aquasalis presence that integrated marsh and forest surface area was extrapolated to generate predictive maps. The present study supports the use of satellite imagery by health authorities for the surveillance of malaria vectors and planning of control strategies.

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices of Vector-Borne Disease Prevention during the Emergence of a New Arbovirus: Implications for the Control of Chikungunya Virus in French Guiana.

BACKGROUND: During the last decade, French Guiana has been affected by major dengue fever outbreaks. Although this arbovirus has been a focus of many awareness campaigns, very little information is available about beliefs, attitudes and behaviors regarding vector-borne diseases among the population of French Guiana. During the first outbreak of the chikungunya virus, a quantitative survey was conducted among high school students to study experiences, practices and perceptions related to mosquito-borne diseases and to identify socio-demographic, cognitive and environmental factors that could be associated with the engagement in protective behaviors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross-sectional survey was administered in May 2014, with a total of 1462 students interviewed. Classrooms were randomly selected using a two-stage selection procedure with cluster samples. A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) associated with a hierarchical cluster analysis and with an ordinal logistic regression was performed. Chikungunya was less understood and perceived as a more dreadful disease than dengue fever. The analysis identified three groups of individual protection levels against mosquito-borne diseases: "low" (30%), "moderate" (42%) and "high" (28%)". Protective health behaviors were found to be performed more frequently among students who were female, had a parent with a higher educational status, lived in an individual house, and had a better understanding of the disease. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study allowed us to estimate the level of protective practices against vector-borne diseases among students after the emergence of a new arbovirus. These results revealed that the adoption of protective behaviors is a multi-factorial process that depends on both sociocultural and cognitive factors. These findings may help public health authorities to strengthen communication and outreach strategies, thereby increasing the adoption of protective health behaviors, particularly in high-risk populations.

Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data.

Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables-dense forest surface and built surface-together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

High malaria transmission in a forested malaria focus in French Guiana: How can exophagic Anopheles darlingi thwart vector control and prevention measures?

In French Guiana, malaria vector control and prevention relies on indoor residual spraying and distribution of long lasting insecticidal nets. These measures are based on solid epidemiological evidence but reveal a poor understanding of the vector. The current study investigated the behaviour of both vectors and humans in relation to the ongoing prevention strategies. In 2012 and 2013, Anopheles mosquitoes were sampled outdoors at different seasons and in various time slots. The collected mosquitoes were identified and screened for Plasmodium infection. Data on human behaviour and malaria episodes were obtained from an interview. A total of 3,135 Anopheles mosquitoes were collected, of which Anopheles darlingi was the predominant species (96.2%). For the December 2012-February 2013 period, the Plasmodium vivax infection rate for An. darlingi was 7.8%, and the entomological inoculation rate was 35.7 infective bites per person per three-month span. In spite of high bednet usage (95.7%) in 2012 and 2013, 52.2% and 37.0% of the participants, respectively, had at least one malaria episode. An. darlingi displayed heterogeneous biting behaviour that peaked between 20:30 and 22:30; however, 27.6% of the inhabitants were not yet protected by bednets by 21:30. The use of additional individual and collective protective measures is required to limit exposure to infective mosquito bites and reduce vector densities.

High malaria transmission in a forested malaria focus in French Guiana: How can exophagic Anopheles darlingi thwart vector control and prevention measures?

In French Guiana, malaria vector control and prevention relies on indoor residual spraying and distribution of long lasting insecticidal nets. These measures are based on solid epidemiological evidence but reveal a poor understanding of the vector. The current study investigated the behaviour of both vectors and humans in relation to the ongoing prevention strategies. In 2012 and 2013, Anopheles mosquitoes were sampled outdoors at different seasons and in various time slots. The collected mosquitoes were identified and screened for Plasmodium infection. Data on human behaviour and malaria episodes were obtained from an interview. A total of 3,135 Anopheles mosquitoes were collected, of which Anopheles darlingi was the predominant species (96.2%). For the December 2012-February 2013 period, the Plasmodium vivax infection rate for An. darlingi was 7.8%, and the entomological inoculation rate was 35.7 infective bites per person per three-month span. In spite of high bednet usage (95.7%) in 2012 and 2013, 52.2% and 37.0% of the participants, respectively, had at least one malaria episode. An. darlingi displayed heterogeneous biting behaviour that peaked between 20:30 and 22:30; however, 27.6% of the inhabitants were not yet protected by bednets by 21:30. The use of additional individual and collective protective measures is required to limit exposure to infective mosquito bites and reduce vector densities.

Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana Using Climate Indicators.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical epidemic year and to define the best indices for predicting dengue fever outbreaks during the period 1991-2013. A logistic regression was then performed to build a forecast model. We demonstrate that a model based on summer Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and Azores High sea-level pressure had predictive value and was able to predict 80% of the outbreaks while incorrectly predicting only 15% of the non-epidemic years. Predictions for 2014-2015 were consistent with the observed non-epidemic conditions, and an outbreak in early 2016 was predicted. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings indicate that outbreak resurgence can be modeled using a simple combination of climate indicators. This might be useful for anticipating public health actions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and medical infrastructures are generally insufficient.

Mosquito magnet® liberty plus trap baited with octenol confirmed best candidate for Anopheles surveillance and proved promising in predicting risk of malaria transmission in French Guiana.

BACKGROUND: In French Guiana, Mosquito Magnet® Liberty Plus trap baited with octenol (MMoct) has been proposed for sampling Anopheles darlingi after comparison with CDC light trap and Human landing catch (HLC). However, other available lures were not tested. The current study compared MMoct and MM baited with Lurex™ (MMlur) to HLC, and analysed entomological data from MMoct collection with malaria cases to facilitate malaria surveillance. METHODS: Two independent experiments were conducted during 2012 and 2013 in Saint-Georges town, French Guiana. The first experiment used Latin square design to compare MMoct and MMlur to HLC between 18:30 to 22:30 and 05:00 to 07:00. Parity rate was determined for An. darlingi from each sampling system. In the second experiment, a 24:00 hour collection was done for four consecutive days during the first week of each month and every four days for the rest of the month using MMoct. Portion of the 24 hour collection was dissected for parity rate. All anophelines were screened for Plasmodium infection by PCR. Data for number of malaria cases was analysed for association with density of An. darlingi. RESULTS: In the first experiment, 3,721 anopheline mosquitoes were collected over 21 nights. Of these, 95.7% was identified morphologically to five species and An. darlingi contributed 98.4%, mainly from HLC (75.1%, CI 95% [73.2-77.0]) than MMoct (14.1%, CI 95% [12.6-15.7]) and MMlur (10.8%, CI 95% [9.4-12.2]). Species richness was highest in HLC meanwhile species diversity index was greatest in MMoct. MMoct collected more parous An. darlingi than HLC (p<0.0001) and MMlur (p=0.0021). The second experiment amounted to 2035 females, 60.8% belonging to 10 species. Anopheles darlingi constituted 85.0% of the species and had parity rate of 52.3%. Specimens were uninfected with Plasmodium. Density of An. darlingi best correlated with malaria cases observed six weeks later (p=0.0016; r=0.4774). CONCLUSION: Though MMoct and MMlur performed well in sampling An. darlingi, MMoct captured more species and, therefore, would be useful for surveillance. Even if it collected mostly parous mosquitoes, MMoct proved useful in collecting entomological data required for predicting malaria emergence. It is a potential replacement for HLC.